Premier League Golden Boot tips – Aguero and Costa set to duke it out
Don’t look beyond the Premier League top four for this season’s Golden Boot winner
July 9th, 2015
Kevin Phillips was the last player from outside the top four teams to win Premier League top scorer, with the Sunderland striker topping the charts during the 1999/2000 season.
Since then, it has been an award dominated by the likes of Thierry Henry, Dider Drogba and Cristiano Ronaldo, while Robin van Persie and Luis Suarez have also scooped the prize.
Last season, it was the turn of Sergio Aguero to finish top of the pile and it would be foolish to neglect the Argentine this season, with bet365 pricing him up at a best odds of 7/2.
Aguero would be a lot shorter if it wasn’t for the fact that he’s been injury prone since completing a move from Atletico Madrid, while Manuel Pellegrini could well use him sparingly – especially in the first few weeks as the forward gets back to full fitness after an extended Copa America campaign.
26 goals in 33 top flight games last season was a typically outstanding return and he hit 17 in 23 the season before, so all signs point to the forward being capable of a huge return.
The only other players to rival him for goal return last season were Diego Costa and Harry Kane. As mentioned, we’re looking for top four teams’ players to scoop this award and Kane probably won’t achieve that in a Tottenham shirt this season.
It’s also unclear whether the England striker will emulate last season’s return of 21 goals although the flip side is that he might have racked up a few more if Mauricio Pochettino had selected him from the start of the campaign.
Kane is a 14/1 chance and could well place this season although Costa is a far more assured bet at odds of 11/2 and looks like a great each-way shout.
20 goals in 26 games for the Blues last season was pretty explosive and it was previously 27 in 35 for Atletico so we’re seeing a world-class forward who can hopefully have an injury-free season.
Taking Aguero and Costa at lumpy prices could be a winning formula. The Arsenal goals are likely to be more evenly-spread amongst the team, with Alexis Sanchez ten behind Aguero last season and likely to be assisting plenty as well as scoring them.
As for Manchester United, Wayne Rooney hasn’t hit 20+ goals in the past three seasons and perhaps the team’s top scorer will be the unexposed Memphis Depay who is a 25/1 chance but he really could be anything during his first season in England.
We’re happy to dismiss the 21-year-old and stick with our two against the field this season, although you might secure a better price about Aguero a couple of games into the season.
Sergio Aguero @ 7/2 with bet365
Diego Costa @ 11/2 with Paddy Power